24,000 business jets over the next 20 years, says Bombardier
Bombardier Aerospace has released its annual 20-year forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets. As the business and commercial aircraft markets continue to recover from the industry downturn, indicators are mixed, yet trending positively, according to the company. Further research shows that new aircraft orders are supported by continued demand from developed markets and growth potential in emerging markets, which are forecasted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. Operators industry-wide are remaining focused on fleet optimisation and aircraft efficiency as fuel prices and environmental concerns rise.
“We have built our leadership position in aviation by continuously pushing the boundaries of product development to better meet the needs of our customers, both those who operate our aircraft and those who use them as a mode of transportation,” said Mairead Lavery, vice president of strategy, business development and structured finance at Bombardier Aerospace. “We will continue to deliver industry-leading mobility solutions, and we are positioning ourselves for a period of growth by pursuing our international expansion strategy to be closer to our customers in traditional and emerging markets.”
Business aircraft market forecast
Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 24,000 business jet deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in all segments in which Bombardier competes, which represents approximately US$648 billion in industry revenues. The Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth US$266 billion, from 2012 to 2021, and 14,200 deliveries, worth US$382 billion, from 2022 to 2031.
While the business aviation market continues to recover, current market indicators are mixed. Market confidence needs to be fully restored for industry business jet deliveries to increase strongly and enable the industry to realise its full potential, according to Bombardier. Deliveries are expected to lag order intake as manufacturers strive to maintain acceptable backlog levels, and business jet industry deliveries for 2012 are expected to be comparable to 2011. Bombardier believes business jet industry deliveries will return to sustained growth starting in 2013, with the large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.
Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts that North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2012 and 2031 with 9,500 aircraft, followed by Europe, with 3,920 aircraft. Notably, China will become the third-largest market for business jet deliveries, with 2,420 deliveries from 2012 to 2031. Bombardier also expects key growth markets, including Brazil, India, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.
New aircraft development programs, including the Learjet 70, Learjet 75, Learjet 85, Global 7000 and Global 8000 jets, are intended to position Bombardier for long-term market leadership.
Commercial aircraft market forecast
Bombardier Aerospace’s 20-year view of the 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft market calls for 12,800 deliveries from 2012 to 2031, generating over US$630 billion in sales revenue. This represents a decrease of 300 units (2.3%) compared to last year’s forecast, mainly due to a lower GDP forecast and a sharp increase in the forecasted oil price.
Bombardier’s forecasted industry deliveries by segment are:
• 20 to 59 seats: 300 aircraft deliveries
• 60 to 99 seats: 5,600 aircraft deliveries
• 100 to 149 seats: 6,900 aircraft deliveries
In the 60- to 99-seat commercial aircraft market, Bombardier expects that scope clauses in North American and European operations will continue to ease to meet growing demand in this market segment, valued at more than US$180 billion over the 20-year forecast period. In the 100- to 149-seat segment, a shift in focus towards aircraft that are optimised for their intended segments is expected to be a catalyst for demand as airlines move away from derivatives of larger aircraft that were originally designed for larger capacity. Deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in the 100- to 149-seat segment are forecast to be worth more than US $449 billion.
The global demand for air travel and new aircraft continues to shift towards emerging markets, according to the report. In 2011, Bombardier increased the size of its commercial aircraft sales team, placing a strong emphasis on these regions to meet this demand. However, as with the business aircraft industry, North America is expected to lead the way in aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, taking in an expected 4,730 new aircraft, followed by China, with 2,220 aircraft, and Europe, including Russia and the CIS, with 2,240 aircraft.
The Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that more than half of the current commercial aircraft fleet will be replaced in the next 20 years – a slightly greater percentage than expected last year. Technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies and age are driving the increasing pace of older aircraft retirements, which will in turn have a positive impact on demand for new aircraft. In addition, although high oil prices will continue to challenge airlines’ profitability, the arrival of new, technologically advanced aircraft that deliver direct operating cost reductions will accelerate the retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.