Embraer announced today, at the 53rd International Paris Air Show, that over the next 20 years the company forecasts a steady market demand for 10,550 new aircraft with up to 150 seats worldwide, worth US$600 billion. Market growth will drive 55% of total demand and the remaining 45% will be delivered to replace ageing aircraft, according to the Brazilian airframer.
According to the company’s forecast, while region-specific outlooks vary considerably, efficiency and sustainability remain the underlying drivers to support the projected market demand. The up to 150-seat segment will form an ever more integral part of the global air transport ecosystem.
“Despite great results that have been shown by the industry since 2015, when the EBIT margin touched the unprecedented level of 8.6%, we have seen those margins falling systematically: 8.5% in 2016, 7.5% in 2017, 5.8% in 2018,” said John Slattery, president &CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation. “For sure, those numbers are still strong, but it’s quite reasonable to consider that the peak of this great cycle is behind us”.
The economic performance of the airline industry will mostly depend on how far costs will rise and to what extent the industry can sustain a healthy revenue environment, adds the forecast. Aircraft in the up to 150-seat segment are the most efficient tools for combining cost efficiency with stronger yields.
“The up to 150-seat segment represents a very adaptable alternative to sustainable growth for the airline industry as it can serve multiple missions, with very low risk and now, following the arrival of the E2 family, with the most efficient single-aisle platform”, Slattery said.
Embraer’s 2019-2038 market outlook is available at http://www.embraermarketoutlook2019.com