Aviation analytics firm, Cirium Ascend Consultancy, has published its annual Fleet Forecast, which includes predictions for the future of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market.
The forecast predicts that 46,500 aircraft will be delivered globally over the next 20 years, equating to a total value of USD$3.4 trillion, as airlines continue to invest in newer, more sustainable aircraft.
These are big numbers, but they are tempered by the continued supply chain issues, geopolitical uncertainty, and delays to certification of new programmes the aviation industry is facing.
The forecast projects there will be a 6% reduction in aircraft deliveries over the next seven years compared to last year’s Fleet Forecast, mainly due to the production of single-aisle aircraft ramping up at a slower rate than expected.
However, Cirium expects that long-term demand will remain strong, with a 1% overall increase in deliveries.
Other key findings of the forecast include:
- Asia continues to drive fleet growth, accounting for 45% of deliveries, led by demand in China and India.
- Airbus and Boeing are projected to account for 85% of aircraft deliver and 92% by value through 2044, while COMAC is expected to capture 6% of global demand.
- Single-aisle aircraft now account for 71% of the global fleet, while twin-aisle and regional jets remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Stephen Burnside, global head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds. Long-term demand remains robust across every region, airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs continue to incrementally increase their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft families.
“The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right-sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.”
An executive summary of the Fleet Forecast is available to download via Cirium
