Boeing has released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for China, a long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and related services. A headline figure of the report is that the company’s analysts forecast that China will more than double its commercial airplane fleet by 2043, with demand for 8,830 new airplanes as its aviation industry expands and modernises to meet growing demand for passenger and cargo air travel.
The CMO projects that China’s commercial aircraft fleet will grow 4.1% annually, from 4,345 to 9,740 airplanes by 2043, and its annual passenger traffic growth of 5.9% will exceed the global average of 4.7%. Boeing also predicts that passenger volumes will receive a boost as airlines grow their networks by connecting major hubs to smaller cities.
The China CMO forecast through 2043 also states that air travel within China will grow 5.2% annually, becoming the world’s largest traffic flow through 2043, driving growth in the single-aisle fleet, which accounts for more than three-quarters of deliveries. This will drive demand for 8,830 new planes over the next 20 years, around 60% of which will be for fleet growth, and 40% as more fuel-efficient replacements for older jets.
Boeing also expects that China will have the world’s largest widebody fleet through 2043, with demand for 1,575 new widebody airplanes. Meanwhile China’s freighter fleet – including dedicated and converted models – will nearly triple, with demand stimulated by its booming e-commerce sector.
“China’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing. “As this forecast shows, China’s airlines will see strong demand, requiring further growth of their modern fuel-efficient fleets.”
The increased demand for aircraft will drive further opportunities for the aviation industry, as Chinese carriers will need aviation services worth US$780 billion to support the growing fleet, including digital solutions, maintenance and modifications. Meanwhile China’s airline industry will need to hire and train nearly 430,000 new personnel to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew.
Boeing is the largest customer of China’s aviation manufacturing industry, with more than 10,000 Boeing airplanes currently flying with parts made in China. Boeing’s activity in China contributes more than US$1.5 billion annually in direct support of China’s economy, including suppliers, joint ventures, operations, training, and research and development investment.
