Embraer has published its Market Outlook 2025, an annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The Brazil-based airframer estimates there will be 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044, which will drive related orders for aircraft cabin hardware and systems..
Embraer has also analysed global influences and trends in seven world regions that will affect the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time.
The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s president and CEO of commercial aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends that Embraer identified during the pandemic.
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow,” said Meijer.
“We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
Highlights of the Market Outlook
Embraer forecasts that world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), will grow 3.9% annually through 2044. China will lead among seven key global regions.
The annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked
- 5.7% China
- 4.7% Latin America
- 4.4% Africa
- 4.4% Middle East
- 4.1% Asia Pacific
- 3.1% Europe & CIS
- 2.4% North America
RPK share by the end of 2044
- 39% Asia Pacific
- 37% Europe & North America
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats
- 10,500 units
- 8,720 jets
- 1,780 turboprops
Market value of all new aircraft
- USD 680 billion
Jet deliveries – 8,720
Breakdown by region:
- 2,680 North America (30.7%)
- 1,990 Europe & CIS (22.8%)
- 1,500 China (17.2%)
- 1,050 Asia Pacific (12.1%)
- 770 Latin America (8.8%)
- 380 Africa (4.4%)
- 350 Middle East (4.0%)
Turboprop deliveries – 1,780
Breakdown by region:
- 640 Asia Pacific (36.0%)
- 280 North America (15.7%)
- 260 Europe & CIS (14.6%)
- 220 Africa (12.4%)
- 200 China (11.2%)
- 160 Latin America (9.0%)
- 20 Middle East (1.1%)
The complete 2025 Market Outlook is available on Embraer’s website.
