IBA, the aviation market intelligence and advisory company, forecasts up to 875 commercial aircraft orders and commitments being announced at this week’s Farnborough International Airshow, as airlines accelerate fleet renewal plans and compete for increasingly scarce delivery positions.
IBA expects narrowbody aircraft to account for approximately 480 (55%) of the total, alongside 280 widebodies (32%), 75 regional jets, 25 turboprops, and 15 widebody freighters.
The forecast encompasses predicted firm orders, memoranda of understanding, letters of intent, options, and previously undisclosed commitments that could be revealed during the event. If realised, it would represent a significant increase in activity compared with the previous two international airshows (601 aircraft at Paris Air Show 2025 and 438 at Farnborough 2024), although it would remain below the exceptional order level of 1,338 aircraft recorded at the 2023 Paris Air Show.
IBA expects limited delivery availability to be one of the principal factors driving activity at Farnborough 2026. Meaningful production positions for new Airbus A320neo family and Boeing 737 MAX aircraft have become increasingly limited until approximately 2033, while Airbus widebody slots only begin to become more accessible from 2032 and 2033. Boeing widebody availability remains constrained until around 2034, says IBA, while delivery positions for the Comac C919 are similarly limited until approximately 2034 or 2035.
Regional and crossover aircraft continue to offer more accessible near-term delivery positions. However, IBA warns that airlines seeking larger narrowbody and widebody aircraft need to plan their fleet requirements further in advance or rely on leased and used aircraft to bridge the gap until new production capacity becomes available.
“Farnborough 2026 could mark a return to more substantial airshow order activity, driven less by the launch of new aircraft programmes and more by the urgent need for airlines to secure future capacity,” said Dr Stuart Hatcher, chief economist & chief data officer at IBA. “Many carriers are reaching a point where fleet replacement decisions can no longer be deferred, yet the delivery positions available to them extend well into the next decade.
“With meaningful A320neo family and 737 MAX slots increasingly limited until around 2033, and widebody availability extending even further, airlines that need aircraft for replacement or growth must act now or depend on leases and older equipment for longer. This competition for capacity, combined with volatile fuel prices and the efficiency benefits offered by newer aircraft, should support a stronger result at Farnborough than we have seen at recent airshows.”
IBA’s forecast follows a notable start to 2026 for commercial aircraft orders, characterised by substantial activity among flag carriers and the gradual return of Chinese airline fleet investment. Airbus A320neo family aircraft have led the market to date, although a potential agreement involving approximately 200 Boeing aircraft for the Chinese market would materially alter the balance between the two manufacturers, if confirmed.
Order activity is also broadening beyond the largest narrowbody programmes. AirAsia’s anticipated A220 order highlights growing interest in smaller narrowbody aircraft, while Finnair is moving towards a sizeable Embraer order. Renewed fleet activity from SAS, following the financial and operational challenges it experienced in recent years, also points to strengthening confidence among established European carriers.
IBA expects widebody aircraft to have particularly strong order outcomes at Farnborough, accounting for almost one-third of its total forecast. The Airbus A330neo is gaining momentum across a wider operator base, while airlines across Asia, the Middle East, Europe and North America continue to assess substantial long-haul fleet replacement and growth requirements.
Potential activity identified by IBA includes widebody fleet commitments from American Airlines, Etihad, Qantas, Air India, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, China Southern, and Singapore Airlines; the confirmation of Korean Air’s undisclosed order; and narrowbody commitments from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, and Alaska Airlines, amongst others.
The chance of Emirates placing the elusive A350-1000 order remains low, although a further change to their small 787 order is always possible.
IBA also expects regional aircraft and freighters to make a meaningful contribution to the show’s order activity. Greater near-term production availability within the regional market provides airlines with opportunities to secure aircraft within shorter delivery timeframes, while demand for dedicated freighters is gathering pace as operators consider fleet replacement and seek more efficient cargo capacity.
IBA’s data also indicates that approximately 324 aircraft remain associated with orders that have not yet been publicly attributed to named customers. Farnborough could provide the setting for a proportion of these orders to be disclosed, although some are expected to remain recorded against undisclosed customers following the event.
The number of announcements at Farnborough will therefore not necessarily correspond directly with the number of newly placed firm orders. The final total is expected to include a combination of new transactions, firming previously placed orders, customer disclosures, and agreements that remain subject to finalisation.
Despite the positive outlook, IBA cautions that geopolitical uncertainty, volatile airline operating costs, supply chain constraints, and continued challenges in raising aircraft production rates remain significant risks. Although higher fuel prices strengthen the economic case for replacing older aircraft, they can also place pressure on airline balance sheets and affect the timing of investment decisions.
In any case, customers will continue to assess their needs and not rush into any decisions lightly, says IBA. Orders already placed this year would have taken months, if not years, of careful planning rather than being triggered by the recent fuel spike. That being said, it may have hastened the decision process to prevent losing the slot.
IBA nevertheless expects underlying fleet replacement and growth requirements to sustain order activity. With airlines competing for a limited number of production positions and facing delivery lead times extending into the mid-2030s, Farnborough 2026 is expected to provide an important indication of how the industry is positioning its fleets for the next decade.
