The commercial aerospace industry is navigating two distinct transformations. On the ground, the priority is deep digital resilience: mitigating ransomware risks, easing supply chain bottlenecks with 3D printing, and augmenting a stretched workforce with Agentic AI.
But look upwards and there’s a new era of physical expansion, where the rise of reusable launch vehicles is establishing a lucrative, unprecedented market for space MRO and logistics. There are a few key developments to watch…
Prediction 1: The new cybersecurity imperative. Closing the vulnerable gaps in the tech stack
The entire commercial aviation network is critical. Its high-value infrastructure ensures the effective movement of people and goods around the world (including essential services such as the transportation of vaccines). The industry’s vulnerability to cyberattacks and the ability of such attacks to cause widespread disruption has been underscored by recent examples.
Thales figures found a 600% increase in ransomware attacks in the aviation sector between 2024-2025. Just look to the ransomware attack in September 2025 that crippled check-in systems across multiple major European hubs including Brussels, London and Berlin.
At issue is the fact that aviation is still only digitally mature in part. The vulnerability lies in the ‘middle section’, where airline, aircraft and ground systems have been partially modernised, but are not fully up to date with modern cybersecurity practices.
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In the year ahead, airlines and regulatory bodies, motivated by recent attacks and the essential role that aviation plays in world affairs, and consequential potential targeting by state-sanctioned actors, will mandate a significant push for digital modernisation across the entire industry. This will compel all major airlines and airports to implement up-to-date, modern cybersecurity practices for all operational systems, closing the ‘middle section’ gap to counter potential threats.
Airline operators need seamless agility and resilience to stand any chance in the cybersecurity battle. Airlines and MROs must ensure their software providers adopt a clear security posture, constantly addressing vulnerabilities with frequent updates using an evergreen approach, and – ideally – designing out vulnerabilities from the beginning.
Prediction 2: Supply chain resilience. The rise of 3D printing & digital thread
Supply chain challenges for the availability of spare parts persist in commercial aviation, driving this back up to the top of the list of issues facing the aviation maintenance industry. This is leading airlines and air operators to think outside the box and adopt innovative strategies to maintain operational readiness. One potential solution has been to use Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) components, but some airlines face considerable hurdles here because lessors often refuse to allow PMA parts on their aircraft.
Even if used as a stop-gap measure, airlines are forced to swap out these parts at the time of lease return, meaning they are still subject to the main suppliers’ limitations. However, other parts supply solutions are on the horizon.
At last, 3D printing goes mainstream
There are promising signs of ongoing efforts by FAA and EASA regulators to clarify how 3D-printed parts can be used in certain applications. Additive manufacturing, combined with the digital thread, could help solve supply chain bottlenecks by allowing parts to be produced quickly and in proximity to where they are needed.
In particular, this technology offers a solution for maintaining older aircraft more efficiently, as digital files for specific parts replace the need to store moulds and retool assembly lines that may have been decommissioned years before.
Following a formal loosening of regulatory constraints, 3D-printed parts will become a mainstream, more accepted solution. The ability to rapidly produce both non-critical and older aircraft components will drastically streamline MRO processes and establish 3D printing as a driver of supply chain resilience in an industry that continues to feel the pain of supply chain issues.
We are already seeing this shift with certified 3D-printed engine components and heat exchangers that handle super-complex geometries not achievable through traditional manufacturing, such as those on the GE Catalyst turboprop engine and the 3-D printed air-to-air heat exchanger flying on the Cessna Denali.
Prediction 3: The Agentic era. Industrial AI provides a helping hand in the MRO hangar
It is abundantly clear that technician shortages will not be solved in the next 12 months. Despite technician certifications rising, The Pipeline Report from the U.S. Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) and Oliver Wyman shows increasing demand, and projected retirements are expected to leave commercial aviation with 10% fewer certified mechanics than needed.
So, the question becomes, how can we help the technicians we do have to do more? One answer is to digitally augment the maintenance technicians to improve overall efficiency. This is where applications of Agentic AI are stepping up to the plate.
One of the most impactful applications of this AI will be the creation of a ‘troubleshooting agent’ that can support maintenance technicians. This generative AI co-pilot will be able to navigate the extraordinary complexity of maintenance documentation, such as Airworthiness Directives (ADs) and Service Bulletins (SBs).
All hands on deck – including digital ones!
The ideal agent will be able to help navigate complex reference documentation such as AMMs, CMMs, troubleshooting manuals or the IPC, all while pulling up pertinent SBs or ADs. For example, the co-pilot could suggest it has found a potential recurring fault and show which repairs failed to work previously.
Such a co-pilot could, in another scenario, suggest the likely candidates for troubleshooting tasks, including historic success rates and time to execute. It could even request the required parts automatically, so they are there waiting to be fitted.
In the year ahead, expect troubleshooting agents to move out of the pilot phase and into deployment within the maintenance operations of airlines and MROs. These agents will serve as a digital co-pilot that enhances the productivity of the existing, experienced workforce, while also helping close the knowledge gap for newer technicians.
Prediction 4: Beyond earth: The growth of the space aftermarket
Looking further skyward, an aftermarket opportunity is emerging that goes beyond Earth’s stratosphere. The new aftermarket is being driven by a proliferation of satellites that have been deployed for communication, observation and scientific purposes, combined with the rise of reusable vertical-landing rockets such as the SpaceX Falcon 9 and the Starship being developed.
Commercial space tourism is now adding a third catalyst, with reusable spaceflight vehicles that must be maintained to rigorous safety and compliance standards between flights. Together, these shifts are creating an entirely new MRO market for the launch platforms themselves, which now require a formal sustainment process rather than simple disposal after a single use.
MRO in space!
For the most part, orbital vehicles have been treated as disposable assets with a finite operational life. Bringing spacecraft back down to Earth has not been feasible, and sending repair systems up has been equally impractical.
The advent of self-healing materials is beginning to shift this paradigm by enabling spacecraft to autonomously repair micro-cracks and structural degradation in orbit, as demonstrated in recent aerospace research on self-healing composites. At the same time, dramatically lower launch costs mean that in-orbit servicing and repair are becoming feasible for the first time.
Launch and space-platform MRO is rapidly emerging as the next frontier. Blue Origin’s multi-use Blue Ring platform illustrates how reusable vehicles will create entirely new sustainment markets. In parallel, NASA’s On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM) framework highlights how satellites and launch systems will require formal sustainment infrastructures rather than being treated as disposable.
Research shows the Space Logistics Market Size will grow to US$19.8 billion by 2040, with large amount of growth driven by on-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing, as well as last-mile logistics. The ripple effect over the coming years is that these previously disposable space assets will require sustainment and support strategies to maximise availability, efficiency, and further reduce the costs of space operations.
This means that maintenance needs to be built into the asset management lifecycle. Manufacturers must make sure vehicles are ready not just for use, but for re-use and, critically, are 100% operational when they are required.
The digital imperative
Commercial aerospace faces a critical digital mandate in 2026, charting the course for resilience and new opportunities. The aviation industry and software suppliers alike must step up to the plate because supply chains are still fragile, and maintenance crews and parts are still in short supply.
Establishing a strong digital foothold now can allow commercial aerospace organisations to leverage currently available tools for 3D printing and AI-enabled MRO. Digital tools will also enable them to enter a new stratosphere as space becomes the next frontier for aftermarket opportunity.
